stats and strategies = broken game?

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endorphin71
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Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:41 pm
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stats and strategies = broken game?

Post by endorphin71 » Sat Apr 18, 2015 3:21 pm

The State of Affairs

I have played through the first campaign until Queen Ennoria. There were some interesting challenges, but I managed to ramp up my levels fairly quickly, playing an Elf Keeper.

Then I spent some time farming in the Training screen. The idea is to pick a Very Easy opponent, since the cards that come up seem the same regardless. I ignore my own deck (may as well be empty) and select only from the shared deck, spin out the game as long as possible, and play every new Rare and above card that comes up. In this way I soon had three of every Rare in my own collection, and a good selection of Epic cards.

I soon figured on the perfect deck, centered on only three cards, with some further damage dealers. With these I stormed every other enemy in the first campaign, including the Orc and Human bosses, which were but a small bother. Definitely Elf Keepers are the biggest challenge, since it is all about Regeneration.

I am left facing Queen Ennoria, who has insane combos and Regeneration greater than I can top. Seemingly the only way to kill her is with effective combos which, apparently, all rely on Mythical cards. I have never seen even one of these. If they drop through normal game play, the percentage is so low it may as well not exist.

There is little point to raising my experience, since I already have enough hit points, regeneration, etc. I simply don't deal out the damage. I need offensive combos.

The Game of Luck decoded

To get Mythicals I must play The Game of Luck, or at least that's what the hints keep telling me. Each step in the game appears to double the gold cost and also doubles the chance of receiving a Mythical card. I didn't go too far down this path before deciding to calculate the odds.

So I wrote a short program to figure out how much I have to spend to cumulatively get >100% chance of scoring a Mythic. Of course, random being random, this doesn't guarantee I will get one. Or I might get two in the same run. Also, it is true that the gold cost is diminished slightly by winning gold at some stages, but this is negligible. So, the results...

Code: Select all

RUN  --GOLD  ---SUM  -CHANCE  ----SUM
  1      10      10    0.005    0.005
  2      20      30    0.010    0.015
  3      40      70    0.020    0.035
  4      80     150    0.040    0.075
  5     160     310    0.080    0.155
  6     320     630    0.160    0.315
  7     640    1270    0.320    0.635
  8    1280    2550    0.640    1.275
  9    2560    5110    1.280    2.555
 10    5120   10230    2.560    5.115
 11   10240   20470    5.120   10.235
 12   20480   40950   10.240   20.475
 13   40960   81910   20.480   40.955
 14   81920  163830   40.960   81.915
 15  163840  327670   81.920  163.835
To be clear, the "sum" columns in each case accumulate the results from the previous column. This is really what we are interested in.

Calculations show that it takes 328 K gold to get a Mythical card. To get 3.24 Mythics, you can make 4 runs of 14 steps, each costing 164k gold. On average, then, three Mythics cost 650k. This certainly doesn't mean that you will get three useful cards, but for now I will assume that all Mythics are useful. Let's be optimistic. :D

I am at level 51, with 70k in gold, most of which I got for completing stages of the Campaign. I need 580k more.

Comparing strategies

My choices now are threefold:

I can attack random mooks on the map, which I can defeat quickly with no bother, with my super-powered deck. The gain is 20 gold a time. I need to win 29,000 such matches. Life's too short.

I can go back to the Training screen and farm. Cards can be sold back, for an average benefit of 50 gold a match. If I am lucky I might also score a new Epic card to add to my inventory. I will need to play 11,600 such matches. Er, no.

Or I can try the Daily Quest, which means fighting 7 enemies for a prize of 1k. Each drops about 100 gold, for a total of 1.7k per quest. With dedication, that will take just under a year.

Perhaps PvP yields better results, but I am not a real PvP sort of player. Besides, the turns go so quick I can't make a correct move, let alone enjoy the process. And you don't get to keep any cards.

So it seems that there is no good way of making money and hence no good way of getting the cards one needs to be competitive.

Please tell me I am missing something. Or this game seems real broken.

Final comments

To forestall a few questions. Yes I have read the game guides here. Most of them are plain wrong.

For instance, the percentages for the Game of Luck are calculated incorrectly in other threads, or it is assumed you will "get lucky". It is commonly stated that ten rounds will get you a Mythic. This is so not true.

I have read a couple of very long (too long) strategy guides. I needn't have bothered, since the advice all seems to be something like "every deck needs 3 copies of Dismiss". How am I supposed to do that? These guides avoid the real problem! The solutions to gaining gold proposed by others are too simplistic and fly in the face of the facts I've outlined above.

Motylek
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Re: stats and strategies = broken game?

Post by Motylek » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:51 am

Hello Endorphin71,

I am sorry, I can not help it, but I have to say it. You seem to be another one of those numerous rookie players who feel themselves being strong at statistics but know almost nothing about game itself due to little experience. Players with similar attitude are making hasty conclusions about game after one or two days of playing and in fact they know "nothing". This reminds me strongly young bold "I know it all" managers, who may know nothing about real work or products, but they can make graphs and they see from them, that productivity has to be raised by 15% this year to make goals of business plan.

You made your whole post based on one assumption which is wrong and then all derived assumptions are affected by that mistake. Game of luck IS NOT the only one source of Mythical cards and Game of luck bids stop at 10240 and they do not grow higher no matter how many times you bid. Win chance percentages will stop at 11th bid as well. On top of it, you do not need a single Mythical card in order to win about 50% of your duels. You will not be able to win with TOP players, but you will be able to win a lot. I am saying my own experience. Skill of how you play is very important factor and skilled player without Mythical cards can win regularly against skill-less player with Mythical-full deck.

Please, give yourself time to discover game more and get more experience before starting disgusting slandering about game being broken. Putting question mark at end of statement is just usual covering practice of cheap tabloids to avoid law sues.

I am sorry if my post is a little on edge, but I really dislike when somebody is speaking out of ignorance.
Motylek

PS:
1) If you really need help/advice, please post it without slander. I will gladly give advices on game to any good-mannered player.
2) Do not spend all gold on Mythical cards. In my opinion, having skills trained is more important than having full set of Mythical cards.
3) If you need hero with more offensive power, with offensive combos, which are dealing real damage, then you should have not chose Elf Keeper. It is the most pacific hero in the game. Even if you will have your dreamed Mythicals, that fact will not change at any point of game and Elf Keeper will be far behind any other hero in damage dealing.

endorphin71
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:41 pm
In-game user name: endorphin71

Re: stats and strategies = broken game?

Post by endorphin71 » Sun Sep 20, 2015 3:20 pm

I happened by accident to come back to this post. To find one reply from a very disrespectful player.

I have no idea what your problem is, but obviously you are far too emotionally attached to promoting this game to help me, or even resist insulting me. I have posted no slander whatsoever. Rather, you spend most of your time slandering me, which is hilarious given your own accusations. But also very sad.

I have posted extrapolations of known facts. If there are things I do not know about the game, I am entirely willing to accept them. However you help me not one little bit, since you give me no information.

"To get Mythicals I must play The Game of Luck, or at least that's what the hints keep telling me." See what I said there? I admitted my only source of information. So there is no need to insult me. You tell me there are other sources. But then refuse to say what they are. Brilliant help that is!

"On top of it, you do not need a single Mythical card in order to win about 50% of your duels." But I am not talking about duels am I? I made it very clear that the only problem I have had winning is with Queen Ennoria. Otherwise I can beat everything.

So, where is your advice about me beating Queen Ennoria? You only say "you should have not chose Elf Keeper". That is an admission that the game is broken.

Never mind replying since I will never be back to this page. If someone had matched my facts with facts of their own, I might have been encouraged. No chance, apparently, in this toxic environment.

1mb4k4
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:26 am
In-game user name: 1mb4k4

Re: stats and strategies = broken game?

Post by 1mb4k4 » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:59 pm

Hi endorphin71,

I somehow missed this topic and it is half an year old already!
I am really sorry about that :(

Regarding your calculation and chances for getting a mythical. I must say they are completely wrong :(
I guess your numbers are "assumed" or judged by the first few levels only ... In reality they do not rise in geometric progression as you assumed.
The number of levels to max out the game of luck are limited to 11. At level 11 your chances to get a Mythical are 30%. This means that there alone at 4th click (max) you will get one and this is really the worst case scenario as you might get it earlier (and you most likely will).

I suggest you invest some gold and see what happens and talk to some players past this point. In the lobby chat or pick someone from the ranking by level - these will be currently the most active ones.

There are various ways to get gold in the game. Yes, as you level up you progress more slowly and there are always much more things for sale than you can purchase. Otherwise it will be very boring :) Yes, the daily quest are a good source for gold, so is the tournament and pvp. Also, do not underestimate the rewards in the gold rewards in the game of luck :). The campaigns of course are the best for getting gold. Slaying the beast can also you get you 1k (but it is more advanced).

Please, be more specific about the strategies you are reading and talking about. Could you post some links?
If you are talking about the FAQ section or the in-game help or the other materials. Well they are kind of basic, indeed.

I home this helps!

I am really sorry for any confusion or any bad feeling here!
And sorry again that i missed this conversation months ago :(

Regards,

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