Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

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Tremblor
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by Tremblor » Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:48 pm

Oooh, I know, I know!!

You say that the rate is "0.025%" and then say "lets say I draw 100 per match -- 100 × .025 = 2.5%"

you forgot the "percent" in your calculation. .025% is .00025

Kotori Acadius
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by Kotori Acadius » Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:28 pm

Well I just achieved to perceive myself as ignorant again...*sigh* :oops:
replacing .025 with .00025
I dont even break a percent 100×.00025=0.025
and add all the matches I had 7300 give or take 7300×.00025= is just 1.825%
Just nothing at all...

but that still leaves me with some doubt even before I took a break from this game I still obtained mythical with ease...
either way I have embarrassed myself enough for today, im just going drop my inquiry and walk away

Dekrov
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Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:13 pm
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by Dekrov » Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:19 pm

Hello man, about mythical cards, i created my account yesterday and i already got two death traps from random deck. Ofc im playing kind of a lot, but if u persist u will get those cards.
I think the chance is fair enough, those cards need to be rare.
See ya. :D

1mb4k4
Posts: 376
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by 1mb4k4 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:48 pm

Thank you! :)
I will move this topic to the other category.
I hope it will help newcomers get better faster :)

Dekrov
Posts: 3
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by Dekrov » Sun Sep 28, 2014 1:56 am

1mb4k4 wrote:Thank you! :)
I will move this topic to the other category.
I hope it will help newcomers get better faster :)
"Newcomers get better faster", what this means? Besides daft punk ? Sorry, but english isnt my main language. Btw just got a "Rum".


In other hand, i fell this forum kind of dead. The players dont like to enter here or theres no player tovuse this forum, anyways, anyway i would like a better forum, in the more activity way. Ill try to bring some friends to eldhelm, to warm up the things.


Edit: Rum is not mythical, it is epic, my bad

Edit2: now i have 12 mythical cards, its kind easy to get using game of luck, whats the point?

kaiser
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Location: Mexico

Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by kaiser » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:46 am

Your for your knowledge and for motivate you about the percents of drawing a mythical card. I got at least 2 of them from the random deck and I felt it as really easy to find them in one character in the second I found 3 and my last character I found 1.
So just keep going and don't despair :D

Aleatory
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:58 am
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Re: Mythical Card Random Deck Percentage

Post by Aleatory » Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:04 am

Kotori Acadius wrote:You hit rage mode in a game at turn 30, so if mange to reach up to here I have drawn
between 5~10 cards on the first turn and then 87 cards for the other 29 turns
so thats around 92~97 cards
however I might not stop at 30, I could keep going or might not reach it all but for now lets say I draw 100 per match
100 × .025 = 2.5%
I don't know how often you check the forums, but the percentage for multiple attempts at drawing a card is not additional (.00025+.00025) but exponential. So while your math for 100 cards drawn is not too far off, the statistical analysis gets farther away the more cards that are drawn from the Random deck.

Let's take an example of figuring out the odds of rolling a 1 on a 6-sided die. The odds for 1 roll of the die is 1/6. While you may think the odds for 2 rolls would be 2/6 (or 1/3), if you actually add up all the possible combinations, a 1 appears in 11 out of the 36 possibilities or 11/36 (30.56% - less that 1/3). Usually the easy way to figure this out is take the probability of the opposite event occurring repeatedly (rolling a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6), as that would have to happen for a 1 to not be rolled. This is basic multiplication. For 2 rolls it would be (5/6)*(5/6) = 25/36. If we subtract this number from 1, we get the probability of 11/36 for rolling a 1. At three rolls it would be (5/6)*(5/6)*(5/6) or expressed as an exponential function: (5/6)^3 = 125/216. Subtract this from 1 and we get 91/216 (42.13%) as our odds of rolling a 1.

.00025 (.025%) is actually 1/4000. So think of it like a 4000-sided die and you are trying to roll a 1.

The formula for figuring out the probability of this action is:
% = {1-((1-p)^n)}
where p = percentage to draw the card, and n = # of attempts to get said card.

Thus, for 100 attempts it would be: 1-((1-.00025)^100) = .0247 (2.47%). Very close to your initial 2.5%. With this you might conclude that you would see a 'Mythical' in 1 out of every 40 or so matches played this way.

However, at 2000 attempts it would be 39.35%, and at 4000 attempts (where you would think on a 1/4000-sided die you would have rolled a 1) it would only be 63.22%. Fairly good odds, but still not guaranteed. At your supposed 7800 attempts, you still only have a 85.78% chance to draw a 'Mythical'. That leaves a 13.22% chance that you would still not have seen a 'Mythical' - that means this happens more than 1 out every 10 tries at pulling 7800 cards.

The only other thing I can add to your woes is if you are putting "heals HP" cards into your Collector deck and drawing them to help heal your Character during the match, this might reduce the number of cards you draw from the Random deck by however many cards that is.

Hope that helps,
~Aleatory

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